The impact of autonomous trucking on jobs
Trucking and final-mile delivery are vibrant areas of innovation in supply chain. Based on estimates by Pitchbook, the two segments took the lion’s share of more than $30 billion in supply chain tech venture capital deals in 2018 and 2019. [1] Despite years of investment and substantial attention, however, autonomous driving is still one of the more nascent areas of development. It also has the potential to have a significant impact on the industry.
SAE proposed a taxonomy for driving automation with six stages (0-5). [2] The most advanced projects at companies like TuSimple, Ike, Uber, Waymo, and others are working on stage-four technologies which means the system will be able to operate the vehicle autonomously in limited conditions, outside of which a human driver must take control. The role drivers have in the self-driving vehicles, and the potential impact to driver jobs, is an important concern. Truck driving is the largest individual occupation in a many states.
Research from Steve Viscelli [3] at the University of Pennsylvania, and Maury Gittleman and Kristen Monaco [4] at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggests the impact of autonomous technologies will more nuanced than some of the dire headlines warn. The easiest segments to automate are the long-haul routes operated by full-truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), and parcel carriers. Long-haul routes employ roughly 400,000 drivers in the US. [4] The majority of these are in full-truckload, which are lower pay with near 100% turnover compared to often unionized LTL and parcel jobs. [3]
If long-haul jobs are automated, some estimates suggest they could be offset by an increase in local routes with consolidation of truck freight hubs into “truck ports.” Local, light-duty delivery and port trucking jobs, however, have the lowest pay, fewest benefits, and highest rate of abuse in the industry. [3] This means economic and political considerations will play a critical role as we drive toward an autonomous future.
Policymakers, collaborating with workers and industry leaders, have an opportunity to tackle some of our biggest challenges: creating good, family-supporting jobs, improving road safety, and reducing traffic congestion and carbon emissions. [3]
References
[1] Pitchbook (2018). Maritime start-ups are latest VC darlings as funding pours into ocean logistics. https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/3q-2019-emerging-tech-research-supply-chain-tech
[2] SAE (2019). J3016: Levels of Automated Driving graphic to reflect evolving standard. https://www.sae.org/news/2019/01/sae-updates-j3016-automated-driving-graphic
[3] Viscelli, S. (2018). Driverless? Autonomous Trucks and the Future of the American Trucker. UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education, and Working Partnerships USA. Retrieved from http://driverlessreport.org
[4] Gittleman, M., & Monaco, K. (2020). Truck-Driving Jobs: Are They Headed for Rapid Elimination? ILR Review, 73(1), 3–24. https://doi.org/10.1177/0019793919858079